Common Laboratory Parameters Are Useful for Screening for Alcohol Use Disorder: Designing a Predictive Model Using Machine Learning

Abstract

The diagnosis of alcohol use disorder (AUD) remains a difficult challenge, and some patients may not be adequately diagnosed. This study aims to identify an optimum combination of laboratory markers to detect alcohol consumption, using data science. An analytical observational study was conducted with 337 subjects (253 men and 83 women, with a mean age of 44 years (10.61 Standard Deviation (SD)). The first group included 204 participants being treated in the Addictive Behaviors Unit (ABU) from Albacete (Spain). They met the diagnostic criteria for AUD specified in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of mental disorders fifth edition (DSM-5). The second group included 133 blood donors (people with no risk of AUD), recruited by cross-section. All participants were also divided in two groups according to the WHO classification for risk of alcohol consumption in Spain, that is, males drinking more than 28 standard drink units (SDUs) or women drinking more than 17 SDUs. Medical history and laboratory markers were selected from our hospital's database. A correlation between alterations in laboratory markers and the amount of alcohol consumed was established. We then created three predicted models (with logistic regression, classification tree, and Bayesian network) to detect risk of alcohol consumption by using laboratory markers as predictive features. For the execution of the selection of variables and the creation and validation of predictive models, two tools were used: the scikit-learn library for Python, and the Weka application. The logistic regression model provided a maximum AUD prediction accuracy of 85.07%. Secondly, the classification tree provided a lower accuracy of 79.4%, but easier interpretation. Finally, the Naive Bayes network had an accuracy of 87.46%. The combination of several common biochemical markers and the use of data science can enhance detection of AUD, helping to prevent future medical complications derived from AUD.