Predicting Outcome and Duration of Mechanical Ventilation in Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure: The PREMIER Study

Abstract

Objectives: The ability of clinicians to predict prolonged mechanical ventilation (MV) in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (AHRF) is inaccurate, mainly because of the competitive risk of mortality. We aimed to assess the performance of machine learning (ML) models for the early prediction of prolonged MV in a large cohort of patients with AHRF. Methods: We analyzed 996 ventilated AHRF patients with complete data at 48 h after diagnosis of AHRF from 1241 patients enrolled in a prospective, national epidemiological study, after excluding 245 patients ventilated for <2 days. To account for competing mortality, we used multinomial regression analysis (MNR) to model prolonged MV in three categories: (i) ICU survivors (regardless of MV duration), (ii) non-survivors ventilated for 2-7 days, (iii) non-survivors ventilated for >7 days. We performed 4 × 10-fold cross-validation to validate the performance of potent ML techniques [Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF)] for predicting patient assignment. Results: All-cause ICU mortality was 32.8% (327/996). We identified 12 key predictors at 48 h of AHRF diagnosis: age, specific comorbidities, sequential organ failure assessment score, tidal volume, PEEP, plateau pressure, PaO(2), pH, and number of organ failures. MLP showed the best predictive performance [AUC 0.86 (95%CI: 0.80-0.92) and 0.87 (0.80-0.93)], followed by MNR [AUC 0.83 (0.76-0.90) and 0.84 (0.77-0.91)], in distinguishing ICU survivors, with non-survivors ventilated 2-7 days and >7 days, respectively. Conclusions: Accounting for ICU mortality, MLP and MNR offered accurate patient-level predictions. Further work should integrate clinical and organizational factors to improve timely management and optimize outcomes. This study was initially registered on 3 February 2025 at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT06815523).