Effects of air pollution on dementia over Europe for present and future climate change scenarios

Abstract

The scientific literature is scarce when referring to the influence of atmospheric pollutants on neurodegenerative diseases for present and future climate change scenarios. In this sense, this contribution evaluates the incidence of dementia (Alzheimer's disease, AD, and dementia from unspecified cause, DU) occurring in Europe associated with the exposure to air pollution (essentially NO(2) and PM2.5) for the present climatic period (1991-2010) and for a future climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 2031-2050). The GEMM methodology has been applied to air pollution simulations using the chemistry/climate regional model WRF-Chem. Present population data were obtained from NASA's Center for Socioeconomic Data and Applications (SEDAC); while future population projections for the year 2050 were derived from the United Nations (UN) Department of Economic and Social Affairs-Population Dynamics. Overall, the estimated incidence rate (cases per year) of AD and DU associated with exposure to air pollution over Europe is 498,000 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 348,600-647,400] and 314,000 (95% CI 257,500-401,900), respectively. An important increase in the future incidence rate is projected (around 72% for both types of dementia) when considering the effect of climate change together with the foreseen changes in the future population, because of the expected aging of European population. The climate penalty (impacts of future climate change alone on air quality) has a limited effect on the total changes of dementia (approx. 0.5%), because the large increase in the incidence rate over southern Europe is offset by its decrease over more northern countries, favored by an improvement of air pollution caused by the projected enhancement of rainfall.